{
 "run": {
  "status": "published",
  "date": "2026-07-22",
  "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
  "newsProvider": "bocha",
  "marketProvider": "rqdatac+cffex+eastmoney+tencent+sina+tqsdk",
  "attempts": [
   {
    "stage": "v2",
    "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "数字溯源失败：以下数字无法在数据底稿或证据卡片中找到：948.04、1373.61、268.79、166.18、500。所有数字必须来自数据底稿或证据卡片，禁止自行推算新数字",
     "被质量门扣留的数据仍进入正文分析：breadth:single_source仍被用于分析「涨跌广度数据同样不可得，市场整体赚钱效应无法量化评估」；margin:single_source仍被用于分析「2. **未来一周**：关注融资余额等杠杆数据在恢复可得性后的变化方向——若单日净偿还幅度显著放大（如>500亿元）且连续2日未企稳，则需重新评」。即使证据卡片含同主题数字，也不得绕过多源质量门"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2-retry-1",
    "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
    "passed": true,
    "errors": []
   }
  ],
  "validation": {
   "passed": true,
   "checks": [
    {
     "name": "structure",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "全部必备章节存在"
    },
    {
     "name": "editorial_process",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未泄露候选路径、内部先验或校验过程"
    },
    {
     "name": "tier",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "信源分级合规"
    },
    {
     "name": "attribution",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "3层归因，权重合计100%"
    },
    {
     "name": "cause_vs_phenomenon",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "归因标题未把高低切/轮动现象冒充根因"
    },
    {
     "name": "five_part",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "2个主归因层均含反方观点与定性裁决"
    },
    {
     "name": "citation_density",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "行内引用91处、覆盖7个不同证据卡片（次数下限15，不同卡片下限7）"
    },
    {
     "name": "temporal_grounding",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "已声明盘中素材缺失，未重建盘中阶段或具体时刻"
    },
    {
     "name": "causal_certainty",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未发现超出订单流、账户身份或时间序列证据的确定性断言"
    },
    {
     "name": "panorama_table",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "全景表含「较近一月高点回撤」列与隐含波动率项"
    },
    {
     "name": "observation_points",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "后市观察含4处“时间变量”型表述"
    },
    {
     "name": "threshold_semantics",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "7项阈值已解析，其中7项通过机器语义校验"
    },
    {
     "name": "citations",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "引用合法（7处）"
    },
    {
     "name": "grounding",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "数字溯源通过（121个显著数字，0个未匹配，容忍2个）"
    },
    {
     "name": "falsifiability",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "阈值表含7行可证伪条件"
    },
    {
     "name": "honesty",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "已按真实可用状态逐项披露（breadth:single_source、margin:single_source）"
    },
    {
     "name": "withheld_data_use",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未发现被质量门扣留的数据通过正文或证据卡片重新进入分析"
    }
   ]
  },
  "qualityLabel": "受限发布；内容门通过 17/17",
  "dataQuality": {
   "schemaVersion": "market-quality-v1",
   "policyVersion": "market-quality-v3",
   "runId": "manual-2026-07-22-5c03bea495addd42f2ce8f45767bd5c3",
   "date": "2026-07-22",
   "generatedAt": "2026-07-23T16:41:47+08:00",
   "sessionState": "trading",
   "grade": "limited",
   "coreComplete": true,
   "coreMatched": true,
   "analysisReady": true,
   "checks": [
    {
     "domain": "session",
     "key": "trading_session",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "comparedPoints": 6,
     "detail": "2026-07-22由多源确认为交易日",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000001",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.013283,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "上证指数价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399001",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.003661,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "深证成指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399006",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.01159,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创业板指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000688",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.025845,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "科创50价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000300",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.011131,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "沪深300价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000852",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.007327,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "中证1000价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399106",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.021446,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "深证综指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512480",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "eastmoney",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000005,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "半导体ETF由eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512000",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000006,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "券商ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512800",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000005,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "银行ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510880",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000018,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "红利ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512010",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000003,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "医药ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159992",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000003,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创新药ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159611",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000013,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "电力ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159915",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000003,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创业板ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "588000",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000001,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "科创50ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510300",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000006,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "沪深300ETF由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000001:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.009309,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "上证指数收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399001:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "eastmoney",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "深证成指收盘报价由eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399006:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.006448,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000002,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "创业板指收盘报价由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000688:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.025805,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000001,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "科创50收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000300:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.008904,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "沪深300收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000852:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.003073,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "中证1000收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399106:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.004877,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "深证综指收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512480:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.00013,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "半导体ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512000:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000437,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "券商ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512800:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000285,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "银行ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510880:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000177,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "红利ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512010:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000148,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "医药ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159992:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.00003,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "创新药ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159611:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000256,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "电力ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159915:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "创业板ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "588000:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000015,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "科创50ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510300:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000069,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "沪深300ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "turnover",
     "key": "cn_total_turnover",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "两市总成交额由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证",
     "maxDiffBps": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "turnover",
     "key": "cn_total_turnover_ratio20",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "comparedPoints": 20,
     "detail": "量能20日基线由20个已双源验证交易日组成",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "breadth",
     "key": "a_share_breadth",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "single_source",
     "sources": [
      "eastmoney"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "detail": "a_share_breadth仅单源，未送入分析",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 0
    },
    {
     "domain": "margin",
     "key": "cn_margin_balance",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "single_source",
     "sources": [
      "eastmoney"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "detail": "cn_margin_balance仅单源，未送入分析",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 0
    },
    {
     "domain": "implied_volatility",
     "key": "hs300_atm_iv",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "cffex",
      "tqsdk"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "tqsdk",
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000059,
     "comparedPoints": 2,
     "detail": "沪深300近月ATM IV由cffex+tqsdk交叉验证",
     "maxDiffBps": null
    }
   ],
   "caveats": [
    "历史回跑复用2026-07-22同日已发布原始观测（sourceRunId=manual-2026-07-22-07b5c66-force-email），未使用其他日期数据",
    "量能20日基线由本次多源日K历史重建，共58个已匹配交易日",
    "[single_source] a_share_breadth仅单源，未送入分析",
    "[single_source] cn_margin_balance仅单源，未送入分析"
   ]
  },
  "regime": {
   "mode": "anomaly",
   "score": 5,
   "triggers": [
    "创业板指单日-3.23%（|x|≥1.5%）",
    "科创50单日-2.26%（|x|≥1.5%）"
   ]
  },
  "thresholdsStored": 7,
  "priorThresholdsEvaluated": 0,
  "predictionsEvaluated": 0,
  "predictionsStored": 7,
  "pathHypothesesSpawned": 1
 },
 "critique": {
  "scores": {
   "attribution_ranking": 5,
   "quantitative_verification": 6,
   "falsifiable_thresholds": 8,
   "data_integrity": 5
  },
  "required_fixes": [
   "盘中时间线素材为空时只能明确声明缺失并描述收盘结果，报告引用 [E1] 描述了“下午开盘后双创指数快速跳水，尾盘跌至深水后有部分资金回流，全天呈现‘做T’节奏”，构成了盘中三阶段叙事并涉及“资金回流”禁词，必须删除该句。",
   "breadth 数据状态为 single_source 已被质量门扣留，报告在市场全景中引用 [E1] 的“全市场超3800只个股下跌”作为事实，违反了被扣留数据不得进入事实的规定，必须替换为另一项已通过质量门的事实。",
   "归因语气硬边界多处违规：主因传导机制中写“前期反弹后增量资金缺位”，微观佐证写“明显资金博弈特征”，反方观点捏造“杠杆资金被动平仓”，对冲与逆势力量中写“显示资金明显涌入”“资金可能向……集中”。这些均违反了不得外推增量资金缺位、资金回流、资金涌入、主动买卖及账户身份的硬边界，必须全部重写为不带资金身份的客观行情或成交量共现描述。",
   "本周脉络复盘违规补写资金行为：复盘规则明确“没有同日证据时只描述走势，不得补写资金行为、情绪阶段或确定因果”。报告在 7月22日复盘中补充“科技股迎来兑现和分化”，属于违规补写资金行为，必须删除，仅保留指数涨跌幅描述。"
  ]
 },
 "attempts": [
  {
   "stage": "v2",
   "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "数字溯源失败：以下数字无法在数据底稿或证据卡片中找到：948.04、1373.61、268.79、166.18、500。所有数字必须来自数据底稿或证据卡片，禁止自行推算新数字",
    "被质量门扣留的数据仍进入正文分析：breadth:single_source仍被用于分析「涨跌广度数据同样不可得，市场整体赚钱效应无法量化评估」；margin:single_source仍被用于分析「2. **未来一周**：关注融资余额等杠杆数据在恢复可得性后的变化方向——若单日净偿还幅度显著放大（如>500亿元）且连续2日未企稳，则需重新评」。即使证据卡片含同主题数字，也不得绕过多源质量门"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2-retry-1",
   "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
   "passed": true,
   "errors": []
  }
 ],
 "validation": {
  "passed": true,
  "checks": [
   {
    "name": "structure",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "全部必备章节存在"
   },
   {
    "name": "editorial_process",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未泄露候选路径、内部先验或校验过程"
   },
   {
    "name": "tier",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "信源分级合规"
   },
   {
    "name": "attribution",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "3层归因，权重合计100%"
   },
   {
    "name": "cause_vs_phenomenon",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "归因标题未把高低切/轮动现象冒充根因"
   },
   {
    "name": "five_part",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "2个主归因层均含反方观点与定性裁决"
   },
   {
    "name": "citation_density",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "行内引用91处、覆盖7个不同证据卡片（次数下限15，不同卡片下限7）"
   },
   {
    "name": "temporal_grounding",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "已声明盘中素材缺失，未重建盘中阶段或具体时刻"
   },
   {
    "name": "causal_certainty",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未发现超出订单流、账户身份或时间序列证据的确定性断言"
   },
   {
    "name": "panorama_table",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "全景表含「较近一月高点回撤」列与隐含波动率项"
   },
   {
    "name": "observation_points",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "后市观察含4处“时间变量”型表述"
   },
   {
    "name": "threshold_semantics",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "7项阈值已解析，其中7项通过机器语义校验"
   },
   {
    "name": "citations",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "引用合法（7处）"
   },
   {
    "name": "grounding",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "数字溯源通过（121个显著数字，0个未匹配，容忍2个）"
   },
   {
    "name": "falsifiability",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "阈值表含7行可证伪条件"
   },
   {
    "name": "honesty",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "已按真实可用状态逐项披露（breadth:single_source、margin:single_source）"
   },
   {
    "name": "withheld_data_use",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未发现被质量门扣留的数据通过正文或证据卡片重新进入分析"
   }
  ]
 },
 "queries": [
  "2026年7月22日 创业板指 科创50 大跌 原因",
  "2026年7月 创业板权重 新能源 医药 业绩雷 盈利预测下调",
  "2026年7月 电力ETF 红利ETF 创新高 避险资金 高股息",
  "2026年7月下旬 极端高温 电力供需缺口 电价上调预期",
  "2026年7月22日 中证1000 两融平仓 雪球产品敲入 杠杆资金",
  "2026年7月 美联储降息预期生变 黄金暴涨 A股外资流出",
  "2026年7月 险资或量化 风险预算模型触发 被动减仓成长股 加仓银行红利",
  "2026年7月22日 沪深300期权隐含波动率大跌 机构套保盘平仓 现货抛压",
  "2026-07-22 沪深融资余额 当日净买入 融券余额",
  "2026-07-22 深证成指 成交量行业分布 个股贡献",
  "2026-07-22 沪深300期权 隐含波动率期限结构",
  "A股 2026年7月22日 涨停 跌停 名单 封单",
  "A股 2026年7月22日 龙虎榜 席位",
  "ETF 份额 成交 异动 2026年7月22日"
 ],
 "regime": {
  "mode": "anomaly",
  "score": 5,
  "triggers": [
   "创业板指单日-3.23%（|x|≥1.5%）",
   "科创50单日-2.26%（|x|≥1.5%）"
  ]
 },
 "priorThresholds": null,
 "priorEvals": [],
 "pathHypotheses": [
  {
   "id": "path-funding",
   "title": "缩量异动：杠杆主因待验",
   "thesis": "一种待验证解释是：2026-07-22的市场异动更可能由结构性换手驱动，而非杠杆资金强制平仓或流动性危机放大；当日成交额低于20日均值，且融资余额数据缺失，尚不能认定杠杆是主要放大器。",
   "mechanism": "若该解释成立，当日全市场成交额26533亿元、20日量能比0.87，可能显示整体交投相对近20日萎缩；深证成指量比1.40而上证指数0.89、中证1000仅0.83，可能反映部分板块或个股存在结构性换手差异；沪深300近月平值隐含波动率由20.71%降至19.29%，可能意味着期权市场风险情绪边际回落。由于融资余额字段为null且为单源状态，报道认为目前无法确认杠杆资金被动卖出或承接枯竭。",
   "falsifiers": [
    "后续披露显示沪深融资余额单日大幅净偿还或融券余额显著放量",
    "期权隐含波动率重回上行并伴随主要指数放量跌破关键技术位",
    "盘中或盘后订单流数据显示杠杆账户出现集中止损或券商强平记录"
   ],
   "weightHint": 0.25,
   "evidenceSummary": [
    "2026-07-22全市场成交额为2653345083582元，20日量能比为0.87",
    "深证成指量比为1.40，显著高于上证指数0.89、创业板指0.90、科创50 0.96、沪深300 0.96和中证1000 0.83",
    "沪深300近月平值期权隐含波动率由20.705668%降至19.287867%，日变动-6.847404%",
    "margin字段为null，数据可用性标注为single_source，尚未取得双源一致的融资余额观测",
    "数据可用性中breadth与margin均为single_source，impliedVolatility为ok"
   ],
   "evidenceQueries": [
    "2026-07-22 沪深融资余额 当日净买入 融券余额",
    "2026-07-22 深证成指 成交量行业分布 个股贡献",
    "2026-07-22 沪深300期权 隐含波动率期限结构"
   ],
   "risks": [
    "融资余额与订单流等关键一手数据缺失，单源数据下结论易被证伪",
    "量能比低于1和隐含波动率回落不能直接证明去杠杆已完成或杠杆非主因"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "hypothesisCaveats": [
  "路径假设 path-primary 子 Agent 失败：unsupported causal certainty for path-primary: 因果确定性越界：把观察性归因写成确定因果：「若该解释成立，创业板指与科创50中权重较大的新能源、医药、半导体等成长板块可能遭遇盈利预测下调或监管/",
  "路径假设 path-rotation 子 Agent 失败：invalid hypothesis JSON for path-rotation"
 ],
 "predictionsEvaluated": 0,
 "thresholdsParseFailed": false,
 "timelineItems": 0,
 "depthStats": {
  "inlineCitations": 91,
  "uniqueEvidenceCitations": 7,
  "salientNumerals": 136,
  "timelineNodes": 0,
  "hedgeLines": 3,
  "timeVariablePoints": 4,
  "thresholdRows": 7
 },
 "evidence": [
  {
   "id": "E1",
   "query": "2026年7月22日 创业板指 科创50 大跌 原因",
   "title": "昨天大反弹,今天又下跌!A股,发生了什么?_新浪财经_新浪网",
   "url": "https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-07-22/doc-iniispmx1923443.shtml",
   "source": "新浪财经",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T16:53:08+08:00",
   "snippet": "每经记者|赵云 每经编辑|彭水萍 7月22日,三大指数涨跌不一,科创50指数、深成指冲高回落,创业板指跌超3%。截至收盘,沪指涨0.07%,深成指跌1.42%,创业板指跌3.23%。板块来看,电力板块逆势拉升,有色金属板块表现活跃;算力租赁概念盘中走强,超节点概念反复活跃。下跌方面,存储芯片概念震荡回落,PCB概念震荡调整。全市场超3800只个股下跌。沪深两市成交额2.65万亿元,较上一个交易日缩量3037亿元。周二“报复性反弹”过后,今天(周三)科技股如期迎来兑现和分化。以科创50和创业板指为代表,上午最大的盘面特征是:科技线中的“国产链”整体强于“海外链”,但二者看似都顶住了获利盘的出逃,跌幅可控,还有翻红迹象。然而下午开盘,双创指数便快速跳水。不过,二者的实际跌幅并未立即“否定”昨日的大反弹,更像是突破压力位失败后的自然回落;尾盘跌至深水后,也有部分资金回流,全天呈现“做T”节奏。这里发生了什么?我们认为,主要有两方面压制因素:一是,早间高歌猛进的韩国综合指数,在A股午休时段及下午开盘后持续走弱,诱发部分资金离场。二是,在今天这样一个需要增量资金承接获利盘的日子,A股却缩量3000多亿元。甚至在午后指数下行段落,市场的缩量进一步加剧。短线而言,这意味着市场在大反弹次日,并不急于继续突破,因此最活跃的一批资金有必要离场观望;中线而言,周二的大反弹,市场已给出了“底部已探明”的信号,即便不能直接反弹,只要不创出新低,仍有横盘整理、伺机突破的可能性。“以时间换空间”,说来容易,但如果时刻盯盘,同样会感到煎熬。以万得全A指数为例,2025年4月7日大跌后,市场修复的节奏是——4月8日微涨,4月9日创出新低后大反弹;4月10日至4月30日,震荡回升,直到5月7日和5月8日才首次反包。对比上周五到今天的日K,是不是形态仍然相似?华鑫证券认为,7月以来A股下跌主因资金情绪扰动,而",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E2",
   "query": "2026年7月 创业板权重 新能源 医药 业绩雷 盈利预测下调",
   "title": "7月22日沪深两市涨停分析|立新能源|华银电力|创业板指|硬件|新能源_新浪新闻",
   "url": "https://k.sina.com.cn/article_5953190046_162d6789e06703kp8m.html",
   "source": "新浪网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T15:19:15+08:00",
   "snippet": "创业板指缩量下跌超3%,科创50跌超2%,算力硬件、半导体概念再度全线下挫。立新能源5连板,华银电力4连板,美利云3连板,一图看懂>> 特别声明:以上文章内容仅代表作者本人观点,不代表新浪网观点或立场。如有关于作品内容、版权或其它问题请于作品发表后的30日内与新浪网联系。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E3",
   "query": "2026年7月 创业板权重 新能源 医药 业绩雷 盈利预测下调",
   "title": "创业板公司业绩快报抢先看",
   "url": "https://stcn.com/article/detail/4033423.html",
   "source": "证券时报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T08:54:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "证券时报·数据宝统计,截至7月22日,共2家创业板公司发布了2026年上半年业绩快报。锐科激光预计2026年上半年实现营业收入19.10亿元,同比增长14.75%,实现净利润1.58亿元,同比增长116.73%,基本每股收益为0.2821元,加权平均净资产收益率为4.53%。万讯自控预计2026年上半年实现营业收入4.63亿元,同比下降7.23%,净利润亏损-146.63万元,同比增长87.48%,基本每股收益为-0.0051元,加权平均净资产收益率为-0.15%。(数据宝)创业板公司业绩快报代码简称营业总收入(万元)同比(%)净利润(万元)净利润同比(%)半年报预约披露日期300747锐科激光190972.4514.7515840.76116.732026.08.27300112万讯自控46325.23-7.23-146.6387.482026.08.25注:本文系新闻报道,不构成投资建议,股市有风险,投资需谨慎。财报解析业绩快报、财报、业绩、创业板、创业板业绩、创业板营收、创业板净利润、盈利、创业板盈利 声明:证券时报力求信息真实、准确,文章提及内容仅供参考,不构成实质性投资建议,据此操作风险自担 下载\"证券时报\"官方APP,或关注官方微信公众号,即可随时了解股市动态,洞察政策信息,把握财富机会。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E4",
   "query": "2026年7月22日 中证1000 两融平仓 雪球产品敲入 杠杆资金",
   "title": "线上线下:101.28 0.28% +0.28 300959 搜狐证券",
   "url": "https://q.stock.sohu.com/cn/300959/index.shtml?date=2026-07-22",
   "source": "搜狐股票",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T15:00:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "当前: 线上线下 (300959) 深股通 注 融 101.28 0.28% +0.28 2026-07-22 15:00 均价: 104.12 现手: -- 换手率: 8.37% 量比: 1.31 最高: 110.00 涨停: 121.20 昨收: 101.00 市盈TTM: -- 总手: 4.38万 总金额: 4.56亿 市值: 81.40亿 最低: 99.58 跌停: 80.80 今开: 99.99 盘后固定价格交易(进行中):价格:101.28现手:--成交量:--成交额:--万07-22 15:15转股溢价率0.00% 其他方式 微信登录 qq登录 微博登录 账号密码登录 手机号验证码登录 安全提示 系统出于安全考虑,在点击“发送语音验证码”后,您将会收到一条来自950开头号码的语音验证码,请注意接听。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E5",
   "query": "2026年7月 美联储降息预期生变 黄金暴涨 A股外资流出",
   "title": "贵金属牛市“中场休息” _ 东方财富网",
   "url": "https://wap.eastmoney.com/a/202607213813971244.html",
   "source": "手机东方财富网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-21T16:11:32+08:00",
   "snippet": "2026年上半年,贵金属经历从单边上涨到深度调整的快速切换,黄金价格自最高点最大回撤超30%。展望下半年,宏观环境从明显承压转为边际改善,油价回落、通胀降温、加息预期修正,为贵金属提供喘息窗口。2026年上半年,贵金属市场完成了从单边上涨到深度调整的快速切换,核心特征为波动率显著抬升,定价主线也从长期配置逻辑转向了利率预期变动与拥挤交易出清。1月,财政信用担忧、去美元化趋势、地缘风险、低库存等因素共同推动贵金属价格加速上行,黄金价格一度触及5598美元/盎司,白银价格涨幅更为显著。此后,拥挤交易出清、保证金上调叠加货币政策预期“转鹰”,触发多头集中减仓。3月美以伊冲突爆发后,地缘风险主要通过能源价格推高通胀与加息预期,美元和美债实际利率同步上行,黄金最初积累的避险溢价很快被机会成本上行压制,金价最大回撤约为30%。白银受高杠杆与工业属性影响,调整幅度进一步扩大。展望下半年,宏观环境预计从明显承压转为边际改善。上半年市场定价的核心逻辑组合是能源冲击、高通胀、强美元、高实际利率,叠加AI资本开支强化了美国经济的相对优势。当前油价已明显回落,通胀预期有所降温,就业数据也开始走弱,紧缩影响主要停留在政策预期与资产价格层面,实际加息与实体信用收缩尚未落地。若美伊局势继续缓和,核心通胀与服务通胀边际放缓,加息预期有望逐步修正,美元和实际利率进一步上行的动力将减弱。但美国经济与AI投资仍保持韧性,美元和实际利率更可能从趋势性走强转为高位震荡,流动性环境会迎来压力缓和,尚难迅速回到宽松状态。黄金长期配置逻辑依然成立,但短期定价权已转向宏观变量与金融资金。全球高债务、高赤字叠加利息支出上升,持续削弱主权信用资产的长期实际回报,而地缘分裂、金融制裁与储备多元化不断提升黄金的战略配置价值。2026年一季度全球央行净购金约244吨,私人金条和金币需求也维持高位,长期资金仍在借价格回撤吸纳筹码。不",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E6",
   "query": "2026年7月 险资或量化 风险预算模型触发 被动减仓成长股 加仓银行红利",
   "title": "中信证券:展望2026年下半年,红利资产有望进入估值修复区间_凤凰网财经_凤凰网",
   "url": "https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8uxbyr1iSzL",
   "source": "凤凰网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T08:19:48+08:00",
   "snippet": "人民财讯7月22日电,中信证券研报称,2026年上半年受到地缘形势扰动、流动性收紧等多重因素冲击,大类资产呈现出显著的高分化、高波动特征。展望2026年下半年,红利资产有望进入估值修复区间;预计黄金短期震荡磨底而长期存在结构支撑;主动权益基金中的风格中性组合有望受益;量化基金超额收益或迎来改善;绝对收益型“固收+”基金在分化行情中的适应性更强;宏观配置策略受流动性扰动影响有望减弱;主观CTA策略预计更具优势。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E7",
   "query": "2026年7月 险资或量化 风险预算模型触发 被动减仓成长股 加仓银行红利",
   "title": "中信证券:下半年红利资产有望进入估值修复区间",
   "url": "https://jnzstatic.cs.com.cn/zzb/htmlInfo/128348.html",
   "source": "中证网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T09:18:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "中信证券研报表示,2026年上半年受到地缘形势扰动、流动性收紧等多重因素冲击,大类资产呈现出显著的高分化、高波动特征。展望2026年下半年,红利资产有望进入估值修复区间;预计黄金短期震荡磨底而长期存在结构支撑;主动权益基金中的风格中性组合有望受益;量化基金超额收益或迎来改善;绝对收益型“固收+”基金在分化行情中的适应性更强;宏观配置策略受流动性扰动影响有望减弱;主观CTA策略预计更具优势。",
   "tier": "A"
  }
 ],
 "evidenceSelection": {
  "searched": 32,
  "selected": 7,
  "excluded": [
   {
    "id": "E1",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E3",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E4",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E5",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E6",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E9",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E10",
    "reason": "future_dated"
   },
   {
    "id": "E11",
    "reason": "future_dated"
   },
   {
    "id": "E12",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E13",
    "reason": "future_dated"
   },
   {
    "id": "E14",
    "reason": "future_dated"
   },
   {
    "id": "E15",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E16",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E17",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E18",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E19",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E20",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E21",
    "reason": "future_dated"
   },
   {
    "id": "E23",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E24",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E26",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E27",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E28",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E31",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   },
   {
    "id": "E32",
    "reason": "tier_b"
   }
  ]
 },
 "evidenceTiers": {
  "A": 7,
  "B": 0
 },
 "immutableSourceRefs": {
  "validated": {
   "schemaVersion": "artifact-ref-v1",
   "key": "runs/2026-07-22/manual-2026-07-22-5c03bea495addd42f2ce8f45767bd5c3/normalized/validated-market.json",
   "sha256": "e9d2a7dbe8d64ca3ef0e82669ec5a9054dd59bd1591210ae9c18d73940293d83",
   "bytes": 131198,
   "contentType": "application/json"
  },
  "manifest": {
   "schemaVersion": "artifact-ref-v1",
   "key": "runs/2026-07-22/manual-2026-07-22-5c03bea495addd42f2ce8f45767bd5c3/quality/manifest.json",
   "sha256": "77dd2d5770882f27901d6152c42775753808f83bc3ea4e5d0690e2aac0675f36",
   "bytes": 12055,
   "contentType": "application/json"
  }
 }
}