{
 "run": {
  "status": "published",
  "date": "2026-07-23",
  "model": "aig/google/gemini-3.1-pro",
  "newsProvider": "bocha",
  "marketProvider": "cn_exchanges+rqdatac+cffex+eastmoney+tencent+sina+tqsdk",
  "attempts": [
   {
    "stage": "draft-v1",
    "model": "unavailable",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "draft-v1生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2",
    "model": "primary/unavailable",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "v2生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2-retry-1",
    "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "因果确定性越界：把观察性归因写成确定因果：「台积电2027年代工涨价至多10%的消息在前日已带动半导体ETF上涨 [E11][E12]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 《可再生能源发展\"十五五\"规划》印发，电网设备板块掀涨停潮 [Source: 盘中素材]，迎峰度夏催化下6月原煤产量同比降9.7% [E13」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 煤炭板块多家煤企发布业绩预增公告 [E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 涨停128家、涨跌比3.5显示市场情绪活跃 [Source: 行情数据]，但ETF单日表现不能推出持续性」。观察性行情、成交与新闻共现不能识别因果；归因标题、机制和结论必须明确降格为待验证解释，日线/成交额也不能直接证明主动买卖、机构身份或资金性质"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2-retry-2",
    "model": "primary/unavailable",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "v2-retry-2生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2-fallback",
    "model": "ark/deepseek-v4-pro",
    "passed": false,
    "errors": [
     "引用密度不足：共29处（需≥15），仅覆盖6个不同证据卡片（需≥8）；至少再从尚未使用的E1、E2、E3、E4、E5、E6、E7、E8中覆盖2张与论断直接相关的卡片。不得用重复引用同一张卡片虚增密度",
     "因果确定性越界：把观察性归因写成确定因果：「能源政策驱动下的板块轮动与资金再配置」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：政策端“可再生能源十五五规划”提供基本面线索，叠加迎峰度夏用电负荷刷新纪录、电厂日耗爬升[E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：煤炭、电力等红利方向受迎峰度夏景气支撑，煤价持续上涨与供给收缩超预期为高股息资产提供相对优势[E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：与创业板ETF周跌3.38%形成-6.07个百分点的剪刀差，高股息与成长方向的分化格局延续[Source: 行情数据]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「科创50单日3.78%的跌幅与半导体ETF周度-4.57%的表现在可再生能源政策驱动能源基建板块集体走强的背景下，呈现明确的板块分化格局」。观察性行情、成交与新闻共现不能识别因果；归因标题、机制和结论必须明确降格为待验证解释，日线/成交额也不能直接证明主动买卖、机构身份或资金性质",
     "数字溯源失败：以下数字无法在数据底稿或证据卡片中找到：688、500、1720、1600。所有数字必须来自数据底稿或证据卡片，禁止自行推算新数字"
    ]
   },
   {
    "stage": "v2-until-publishable-6",
    "model": "aig/google/gemini-3.1-pro",
    "passed": true,
    "errors": []
   }
  ],
  "validation": {
   "passed": true,
   "checks": [
    {
     "name": "structure",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "全部必备章节存在"
    },
    {
     "name": "editorial_process",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未泄露候选路径、内部先验或校验过程"
    },
    {
     "name": "publication_boundary",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未发现候选路径或后台校准标签"
    },
    {
     "name": "tier",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "信源分级合规"
    },
    {
     "name": "attribution",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "3层精简归因，未暴露后台权重"
    },
    {
     "name": "cause_vs_phenomenon",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "归因标题未把高低切/轮动现象冒充根因"
    },
    {
     "name": "attribution_compactness",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "异动原因已保持交易员可读的紧凑长度"
    },
    {
     "name": "citation_density",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "行内引用40处、覆盖9个不同证据卡片（次数下限15，不同卡片下限8）"
    },
    {
     "name": "timeline",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "盘中时间线含9个带时间戳/点位的节点（目标≥5）"
    },
    {
     "name": "temporal_grounding",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "正文具体时刻均来自6条盘中素材"
    },
    {
     "name": "causal_certainty",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未发现超出订单流、账户身份或时间序列证据的确定性断言"
    },
    {
     "name": "panorama_table",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "全景表含「较近一月高点回撤」列，隐含波动率项已标注为风险情绪代理"
    },
    {
     "name": "observation_points",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "后市观察含3处“时间变量”型表述"
    },
    {
     "name": "threshold_semantics",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "4项阈值已解析，其中4项通过机器语义校验"
    },
    {
     "name": "citations",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "引用合法（9处）"
    },
    {
     "name": "grounding",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "数字溯源通过（86个显著数字，0个未匹配，容忍1个）"
    },
    {
     "name": "falsifiability",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "阈值表含4行可证伪条件"
    },
    {
     "name": "honesty",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "数据可用性状态保留在后台质量工件，成品未展示采集声明"
    },
    {
     "name": "withheld_data_use",
     "passed": true,
     "detail": "未发现被质量门扣留的数据通过正文或证据卡片重新进入分析"
    }
   ]
  },
  "qualityLabel": "正式发布；内容门通过 19/19",
  "dataQuality": {
   "schemaVersion": "market-quality-v1",
   "policyVersion": "market-quality-v6",
   "runId": "manual-2026-07-23-214d4149315463f7a42579a5f6493ae8",
   "date": "2026-07-23",
   "generatedAt": "2026-07-24T22:53:08+08:00",
   "sessionState": "trading",
   "grade": "formal",
   "coreComplete": true,
   "coreMatched": true,
   "analysisReady": true,
   "checks": [
    {
     "domain": "session",
     "key": "trading_session",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "comparedPoints": 6,
     "detail": "2026-07-23由多源确认为交易日",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000001",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.013283,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "上证指数价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399001",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
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      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.003661,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "深证成指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399006",
     "criticality": "core",
     "state": "matched",
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      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.013901,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创业板指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000688",
     "criticality": "core",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.02688,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "科创50价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000300",
     "criticality": "core",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.011131,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
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     "detail": "沪深300价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "000852",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0.007327,
     "maxDiffPct": null,
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     "detail": "中证1000价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
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     "key": "399106",
     "criticality": "important",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
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     "maxDiffPct": null,
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     "detail": "深证综指价格由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512480",
     "criticality": "important",
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "eastmoney",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000005,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "半导体ETF由eastmoney+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512000",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000004,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "券商ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512800",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "银行ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510880",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000031,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "红利ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "512010",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000006,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "医药ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159992",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000003,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创新药ETF由rqdatac+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159611",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000013,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "电力ETF由rqdatac+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159915",
     "criticality": "important",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
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     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "创业板ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "588000",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000002,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "科创50ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510300",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.00001,
     "comparedPoints": 21,
     "detail": "沪深300ETF由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
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     "key": "000001:quote",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
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     "detail": "上证指数收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399001:quote",
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     ],
     "canonicalSource": "eastmoney",
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     "detail": "深证成指收盘报价由eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "index",
     "key": "399006:quote",
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     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
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     "detail": "创业板指收盘报价由rqdatac+sina交叉验证"
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    {
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     "detail": "科创50收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
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    {
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     "detail": "券商ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
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    {
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    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159992:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "创新药ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159611:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "电力ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "159915:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "创业板ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "588000:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000003,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "科创50ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "etf",
     "key": "510300:quote",
     "criticality": "contextual",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffBps": 0,
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000026,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "沪深300ETF收盘报价由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证"
    },
    {
     "domain": "turnover",
     "key": "cn_total_turnover",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffPct": 0,
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "两市总成交额由rqdatac+eastmoney+tencent+sina交叉验证",
     "maxDiffBps": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "turnover",
     "key": "cn_total_turnover_ratio20",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney",
      "tencent",
      "sina"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": null,
     "comparedPoints": 20,
     "detail": "量能20日基线由20个已双源验证交易日组成",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "breadth",
     "key": "a_share_breadth",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "cn_exchanges",
      "rqdatac",
      "eastmoney"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "rqdatac",
     "maxDiffPct": 0.270597,
     "comparedPoints": 3,
     "detail": "沪深A股官方挂牌5201只，RQData有效收盘5198只（覆盖率99.942%），涨跌方向与独立分布源最大偏差0.271个百分点；涨跌停采用全市场价格命中",
     "maxDiffBps": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "margin",
     "key": "cn_margin_balance",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "cn_exchanges",
      "eastmoney"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "cn_exchanges",
     "comparedPoints": 1,
     "detail": "cn_margin_balance已通过多源校验",
     "maxDiffBps": null,
     "maxDiffPct": null
    },
    {
     "domain": "implied_volatility",
     "key": "hs300_atm_iv",
     "criticality": "important",
     "state": "matched",
     "sources": [
      "cffex",
      "tqsdk"
     ],
     "canonicalSource": "tqsdk",
     "maxDiffPct": 0.000034,
     "comparedPoints": 2,
     "detail": "沪深300近月ATM IV由cffex+tqsdk交叉验证",
     "maxDiffBps": null
    }
   ],
   "caveats": [
    "历史回跑复用2026-07-23同日已发布原始观测（sourceRunId=manual-2026-07-23-334a3069cc5223e378dd4ebfb5b939a0），未使用其他日期数据",
    "量能20日基线由本次多源日K历史重建，共59个已匹配交易日"
   ]
  },
  "regime": {
   "mode": "anomaly",
   "score": 7,
   "triggers": [
    "科创50单日-3.78%（|x|≥1.5%）",
    "涨停128家（≥100）",
    "半导体ETF/红利ETF周度剪刀差-8.8pp且今日-4.8pp（≥8/3pp）"
   ]
  },
  "thresholdsStored": 4,
  "priorThresholdsEvaluated": 7,
  "predictionsEvaluated": 0,
  "predictionsStored": 4,
  "pathHypothesesSpawned": 2
 },
 "critique": {
  "scores": {
   "attribution_ranking": 5,
   "quantitative_verification": 5,
   "falsifiable_thresholds": 5,
   "data_integrity": 5
  },
  "required_fixes": [
   "V1生成步骤不可用；后续生成必须从确定性数据报告重建，失败则保留确定性降级报告"
  ]
 },
 "attempts": [
  {
   "stage": "draft-v1",
   "model": "unavailable",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "draft-v1生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2",
   "model": "primary/unavailable",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "v2生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2-retry-1",
   "model": "ark/glm-5.2",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "因果确定性越界：把观察性归因写成确定因果：「台积电2027年代工涨价至多10%的消息在前日已带动半导体ETF上涨 [E11][E12]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 《可再生能源发展\"十五五\"规划》印发，电网设备板块掀涨停潮 [Source: 盘中素材]，迎峰度夏催化下6月原煤产量同比降9.7% [E13」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 煤炭板块多家煤企发布业绩预增公告 [E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：** 涨停128家、涨跌比3.5显示市场情绪活跃 [Source: 行情数据]，但ETF单日表现不能推出持续性」。观察性行情、成交与新闻共现不能识别因果；归因标题、机制和结论必须明确降格为待验证解释，日线/成交额也不能直接证明主动买卖、机构身份或资金性质"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2-retry-2",
   "model": "primary/unavailable",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "v2-retry-2生成步骤失败：ark/glm-5-2-260617: llm/glm-5-2-260617 timed out after 225000ms"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2-fallback",
   "model": "ark/deepseek-v4-pro",
   "passed": false,
   "errors": [
    "引用密度不足：共29处（需≥15），仅覆盖6个不同证据卡片（需≥8）；至少再从尚未使用的E1、E2、E3、E4、E5、E6、E7、E8中覆盖2张与论断直接相关的卡片。不得用重复引用同一张卡片虚增密度",
    "因果确定性越界：把观察性归因写成确定因果：「能源政策驱动下的板块轮动与资金再配置」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：政策端“可再生能源十五五规划”提供基本面线索，叠加迎峰度夏用电负荷刷新纪录、电厂日耗爬升[E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：煤炭、电力等红利方向受迎峰度夏景气支撑，煤价持续上涨与供给收缩超预期为高股息资产提供相对优势[E13]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「驱动：与创业板ETF周跌3.38%形成-6.07个百分点的剪刀差，高股息与成长方向的分化格局延续[Source: 行情数据]」；把观察性归因写成确定因果：「科创50单日3.78%的跌幅与半导体ETF周度-4.57%的表现在可再生能源政策驱动能源基建板块集体走强的背景下，呈现明确的板块分化格局」。观察性行情、成交与新闻共现不能识别因果；归因标题、机制和结论必须明确降格为待验证解释，日线/成交额也不能直接证明主动买卖、机构身份或资金性质",
    "数字溯源失败：以下数字无法在数据底稿或证据卡片中找到：688、500、1720、1600。所有数字必须来自数据底稿或证据卡片，禁止自行推算新数字"
   ]
  },
  {
   "stage": "v2-until-publishable-6",
   "model": "aig/google/gemini-3.1-pro",
   "passed": true,
   "errors": []
  }
 ],
 "validation": {
  "passed": true,
  "checks": [
   {
    "name": "structure",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "全部必备章节存在"
   },
   {
    "name": "editorial_process",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未泄露候选路径、内部先验或校验过程"
   },
   {
    "name": "publication_boundary",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未发现候选路径或后台校准标签"
   },
   {
    "name": "tier",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "信源分级合规"
   },
   {
    "name": "attribution",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "3层精简归因，未暴露后台权重"
   },
   {
    "name": "cause_vs_phenomenon",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "归因标题未把高低切/轮动现象冒充根因"
   },
   {
    "name": "attribution_compactness",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "异动原因已保持交易员可读的紧凑长度"
   },
   {
    "name": "citation_density",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "行内引用40处、覆盖9个不同证据卡片（次数下限15，不同卡片下限8）"
   },
   {
    "name": "timeline",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "盘中时间线含9个带时间戳/点位的节点（目标≥5）"
   },
   {
    "name": "temporal_grounding",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "正文具体时刻均来自6条盘中素材"
   },
   {
    "name": "causal_certainty",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未发现超出订单流、账户身份或时间序列证据的确定性断言"
   },
   {
    "name": "panorama_table",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "全景表含「较近一月高点回撤」列，隐含波动率项已标注为风险情绪代理"
   },
   {
    "name": "observation_points",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "后市观察含3处“时间变量”型表述"
   },
   {
    "name": "threshold_semantics",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "4项阈值已解析，其中4项通过机器语义校验"
   },
   {
    "name": "citations",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "引用合法（9处）"
   },
   {
    "name": "grounding",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "数字溯源通过（86个显著数字，0个未匹配，容忍1个）"
   },
   {
    "name": "falsifiability",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "阈值表含4行可证伪条件"
   },
   {
    "name": "honesty",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "数据可用性状态保留在后台质量工件，成品未展示采集声明"
   },
   {
    "name": "withheld_data_use",
    "passed": true,
    "detail": "未发现被质量门扣留的数据通过正文或证据卡片重新进入分析"
   }
  ]
 },
 "queries": [
  "2026年7月23日 科创50ETF 基金份额 申赎 净流入",
  "2026年7月23日 红利ETF 资金流向 北向资金 净买入",
  "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
  "2026年7月23日 半导体行业 政策 盈利预期 新闻",
  "2026年7月 半导体ETF 融资余额 变化 杠杆",
  "2026年7月 红利ETF 电力ETF 银行ETF 资金流向 申赎",
  "2026年7月 A股半导体 盈利预测 业绩 产业数据",
  "2026年7月 海外半导体指数 AI产业链 政策 估值锚",
  "A股 2026年7月23日 涨停 跌停 名单 封单",
  "A股 2026年7月23日 龙虎榜 席位",
  "ETF 份额 成交 异动 2026年7月23日",
  "券商 首席 策略 观点 A股 2026年7月23日",
  "央行 公开市场操作 逆回购 资金面 2026年7月23日",
  "A股 2026年7月23日 大盘 异动 原因"
 ],
 "regime": {
  "mode": "anomaly",
  "score": 7,
  "triggers": [
   "科创50单日-3.78%（|x|≥1.5%）",
   "涨停128家（≥100）",
   "半导体ETF/红利ETF周度剪刀差-8.8pp且今日-4.8pp（≥8/3pp）"
  ]
 },
 "priorThresholds": {
  "date": "2026-07-22",
  "specs": [
   {
    "item": "创业板指支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "399006",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 3338.21,
    "baseline": "2026-07-20低点3338.21",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "上证指数支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000001",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 3741.11,
    "baseline": "2026-07-20低点3741.11",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "沪深300近端支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000300",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 4677.57,
    "baseline": "2026-06-08低点4677.57",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "沪深300远端支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000300",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 4492.09,
    "baseline": "2026-07-17低点4492.09",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "全市场量能比回升",
    "metric": "turnover_ratio",
    "op": "gte",
    "value": 1,
    "baseline": "20日均值1.0",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "沪深300近月平值IV突破",
    "metric": "implied_volatility_value_pct",
    "op": "gt",
    "value": 21,
    "baseline": "前值20.71%",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   {
    "item": "创业板ETF日跌幅收窄",
    "metric": "etf_day_pct",
    "code": "159915",
    "op": "gte",
    "value": -2,
    "baseline": "今日-3.32%",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   }
  ]
 },
 "priorEvals": [
  {
   "item": "创业板指支撑位",
   "spec": {
    "item": "创业板指支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "399006",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 3338.21,
    "baseline": "2026-07-20低点3338.21",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "not_triggered",
   "current": 3575.5202,
   "detail": "当前3575.52，条件 <3338.21 → 未触发"
  },
  {
   "item": "上证指数支撑位",
   "spec": {
    "item": "上证指数支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000001",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 3741.11,
    "baseline": "2026-07-20低点3741.11",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "not_triggered",
   "current": 3876.7774,
   "detail": "当前3876.78，条件 <3741.11 → 未触发"
  },
  {
   "item": "沪深300近端支撑位",
   "spec": {
    "item": "沪深300近端支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000300",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 4677.57,
    "baseline": "2026-06-08低点4677.57",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "near",
   "current": 4728.0018,
   "detail": "当前4728.00，条件 <4677.57 → 接近"
  },
  {
   "item": "沪深300远端支撑位",
   "spec": {
    "item": "沪深300远端支撑位",
    "metric": "index_close",
    "code": "000300",
    "op": "lt",
    "value": 4492.09,
    "baseline": "2026-07-17低点4492.09",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "not_triggered",
   "current": 4728.0018,
   "detail": "当前4728.00，条件 <4492.09 → 未触发"
  },
  {
   "item": "全市场量能比回升",
   "spec": {
    "item": "全市场量能比回升",
    "metric": "turnover_ratio",
    "op": "gte",
    "value": 1,
    "baseline": "20日均值1.0",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "not_triggered",
   "current": 0.73,
   "detail": "当前0.73，条件 ≥1 → 未触发"
  },
  {
   "item": "沪深300近月平值IV突破",
   "spec": {
    "item": "沪深300近月平值IV突破",
    "metric": "implied_volatility_value_pct",
    "op": "gt",
    "value": 21,
    "baseline": "前值20.71%",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "near",
   "current": 18.73528,
   "detail": "当前18.74，条件 >21 → 接近"
  },
  {
   "item": "创业板ETF日跌幅收窄",
   "spec": {
    "item": "创业板ETF日跌幅收窄",
    "metric": "etf_day_pct",
    "code": "159915",
    "op": "gte",
    "value": -2,
    "baseline": "今日-3.32%",
    "machine_evaluable": true
   },
   "outcome": "triggered",
   "current": 0.31,
   "detail": "当前0.31，条件 ≥-2 → 已触发"
  }
 ],
 "pathHypotheses": [
  {
   "id": "path-primary",
   "title": "科创50领跌：成长向红利切换",
   "thesis": "一种待验证解释是：2026年7月23日科创50单日大跌-3.78%主要反映资金从半导体/科创成长板块向红利低估值板块再平衡，而非全市场系统性风险。若该解释成立，宽基指数分化与个股普涨可由结构性风格切换解释，而非外部冲击或盈利预期全面恶化。",
   "mechanism": "红利ETF周涨4.26%、科创50ETF周跌2.93%、半导体ETF周跌4.57%的剪刀差，可能反映近期资金偏好由成长/高估值板块向高股息/低估值板块迁移；若该解释成立，科创50作为高估值成长组合，其单日-3.78%的跌幅可能源于相对收益资金再平衡带来的结构性卖压。同时，中证1000近5日累计-5.72%与沪深300周涨0.63%的背离，可能显示中小盘成长在前期已承压；而23日全市场上涨个股占比76.89%、涨跌比3.5，意味着抛压可能集中于科创/半导体链条，未扩散至整体市场。",
   "falsifiers": [
    "未来5个交易日内，科创50ETF相对红利ETF的周收益由负转正且半导体ETF跌幅明显收窄，剪刀差消失或逆转",
    "后续披露的ETF申赎、北向资金或融资数据显示科创50/半导体成分获得净买入而红利ETF出现净赎回，与成长向红利再平衡方向相反"
   ],
   "weightHint": 0.5,
   "evidenceSummary": [
    "科创50单日下跌-3.78%，为所列宽基指数中唯一跌幅超过3%的指数",
    "上证指数、深证成指、创业板指、沪深300、中证1000当日均收涨，涨幅分别为0.25%、0.44%、0.25%、0.23%、0.51%",
    "全市场涨跌比为3.5，上涨个股占比76.89%，显示当日个股层面普涨",
    "半导体ETF周涨跌为-4.57%，红利ETF周涨跌为+4.26%，二者剪刀差为-8.83个百分点",
    "科创50ETF周涨跌为-2.93%，红利ETF周涨跌为+4.26%，二者剪刀差为-7.19个百分点",
    "中证1000近5日累计下跌-5.72%，而沪深300近5日累计上涨+0.63%，大小盘风格短期背离"
   ],
   "evidenceQueries": [
    "2026年7月23日 科创50ETF 基金份额 申赎 净流入",
    "2026年7月23日 红利ETF 资金流向 北向资金 净买入",
    "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
    "2026年7月23日 半导体行业 政策 盈利预期 新闻"
   ],
   "risks": [
    "风格切换假设难以排除行业政策利空或龙头盈利下修的竞争解释，若缺少ETF申赎及龙虎榜数据，容易将相对强弱误读为驱动因素",
    "若后续外部冲击披露或红利板块自身出现利空，资金再平衡叙事可能被证伪"
   ]
  },
  {
   "id": "path-rotation",
   "title": "成长向红利切换的轮动假设",
   "thesis": "一种待验证解释是：市场可能正从前期拥挤的半导体/科创成长向红利、银行、电力等低波高股息资产切换；该轮动若成立，可能由杠杆约束、外部估值锚下修与半导体盈利催化缺位共同放大。",
   "mechanism": "若该解释成立，半导体ETF近一周跑输红利ETF达8.83pp且单日跌幅近4%，可能反映前期高弹性头寸面临风险预算或杠杆约束；科创50同步走弱，可能说明成长风格整体承压。与此同时，电力ETF周涨8.70%且量能升至1.71，红利ETF与银行ETF录得正收益，可能显示资金在缺乏半导体盈利上修信号时，向现金流确定性更高的板块迁移。若外部估值锚（如海外半导体估值、AI产业链政策或利率预期）出现下修，可能进一步压低成长板块相对估值，强化红利的相对吸引力。",
   "falsifiers": [
    "未来3-5个交易日内半导体ETF融资余额未明显下降，但半导体相对红利继续走弱",
    "半导体行业盈利预测或产业数据出现上修，而半导体ETF仍显著跑输红利ETF",
    "红利ETF/银行ETF上涨时北向资金或主力资金呈净流出，而半导体ETF资金呈净流入"
   ],
   "weightHint": 0.35,
   "evidenceSummary": [
    "半导体ETF周跌幅-4.57%，红利ETF周涨幅+4.26%，两者周度剪刀差为-8.83pp",
    "半导体ETF单日-3.99%，红利ETF单日+0.83%，单日剪刀差为-4.82pp",
    "科创50ETF周-2.93% vs 红利ETF +4.26%，周度剪刀差-7.19pp；单日-3.43% vs +0.83%，单日剪刀差-4.26pp",
    "电力ETF周涨幅+8.70%，量能1.71，为所给ETF中周涨幅最高",
    "银行ETF周+2.69%、红利ETF周+4.26%，而沪深300ETF周仅+0.72%",
    "半导体ETF量能0.85、科创50ETF量能0.96，均低于电力ETF的1.71"
   ],
   "evidenceQueries": [
    "2026年7月 半导体ETF 融资余额 变化 杠杆",
    "2026年7月 红利ETF 电力ETF 银行ETF 资金流向 申赎",
    "2026年7月 A股半导体 盈利预测 业绩 产业数据",
    "2026年7月 海外半导体指数 AI产业链 政策 估值锚"
   ],
   "risks": [
    "切片未提供融资余额、北向/主力资金及盘中订单流，无法区分主动调仓与被动平仓",
    "电力ETF量能高企可能反映事件性交易，不等同于系统性向红利资产轮动",
    "数据切片未包含期权隐含波动率具体数值，无法据此确认或排除流动性危机假设"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "hypothesisCaveats": [
  "路径假设 path-funding 子 Agent 失败：empty content (reasoning_len=10369)",
  "路径假设 path-external 子 Agent 失败：LLM HTTP 524: error code: 524\n"
 ],
 "predictionsEvaluated": 0,
 "thresholdsParseFailed": false,
 "timelineItems": 6,
 "depthStats": {
  "inlineCitations": 40,
  "uniqueEvidenceCitations": 9,
  "salientNumerals": 86,
  "timelineNodes": 6,
  "hedgeLines": 2,
  "timeVariablePoints": 3,
  "thresholdRows": 4
 },
 "evidence": [
  {
   "id": "E1",
   "query": "2026年7月23日 科创50ETF 基金份额 申赎 净流入",
   "title": "科创50ETF中银(588720)基金净值_估值_行情走势-天天基金网",
   "url": "https://fund.eastmoney.com/588720.html?date=2026-07-23",
   "source": "天天基金网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T00:00:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "科创50ETF中银 ( 588720 ) 查看相关ETF联接> 基金吧 加自选 加对比 手机版天天基金下载 单位净值 ( 2026-07-23) 1.8027 -3.74% 近1月: -6.43% 近1年: 74.26% 累计净值 1.8027 近3月: 25.20% 近3年: -- 近6月: 15.45% 成立来: 80.27% 类型: 指数型-股票 规模 :1.99亿元(2026-06-30) 基金经理: 赵建忠 等 成 立 日 :2025-03-27 管 理 人 : 中银基金 基金评级 : 暂无评级 跟踪标的: 上证科创板50成份指数 | 年化跟踪误差: 0.94% 基金档案 基金概况 基金经理 基金公司 历史净值 阶段涨幅 分红送配 持仓明细 行业配置 规模变动 持有人结构 基金公告 财务报表 购买信息",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E2",
   "query": "2026年7月23日 红利ETF 资金流向 北向资金 净买入",
   "title": "7月22日北向资金ETF成交额75.36亿元",
   "url": "https://stcn.com/article/detail/4035523.html",
   "source": "证券时报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T20:14:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "今日(7月22日)北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额为75.36亿元,较前一日减少9.92亿元,占北向资金今日成交额的2.01%。 具体来看,今日沪股通ETF买入及卖出成交额48.39亿元,深股通ETF买入及卖出成交额26.96亿元。(数据宝) 北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额沪股通ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)48.39深股通ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)26.96北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)75.36注:本文系新闻报道,不构成投资建议,股市有风险,投资需谨慎。 声明:证券时报力求信息真实、准确,文章提及内容仅供参考,不构成实质性投资建议,据此操作风险自担 下载\"证券时报\"官方APP,或关注官方微信公众号,即可随时了解股市动态,洞察政策信息,把握财富机会。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E3",
   "query": "2026年7月23日 红利ETF 资金流向 北向资金 净买入",
   "title": "7月以来南向资金净买入近700亿元 多只港股主题ETF持续吸金-上海证券报·中国证券网",
   "url": "https://www.cnstock.com/commonDetail/749024",
   "source": "上海证券报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T11:32:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "7月以来南向资金净买入近700亿元 多只港股主题ETF持续吸金凡本报注明“来源:上海证券报”、“来源:上海证券报·中国证券网”和“来源:上海证券报微信公众号”的所有原创作品,著作权均属于本报所有。未经本报书面授权,任何组织不得以任何方式加以使用,包括转载、摘编、复制或建立镜像,本报保留追责的权利。如需获得授权请联系本报版权运营中心:021-38967792,bq@cnstock.com。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E4",
   "query": "2026年7月23日 红利ETF 资金流向 北向资金 净买入",
   "title": "7月23日北向资金ETF成交额59.97亿元",
   "url": "https://stcn.com/article/detail/4038077.html",
   "source": "证券时报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T21:06:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "今日(7月23日)北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额为59.97亿元,较前一日减少15.39亿元,占北向资金今日成交额的1.95%。 具体来看,今日沪股通ETF买入及卖出成交额36.08亿元,深股通ETF买入及卖出成交额23.89亿元。(数据宝) 北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额沪股通ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)36.08深股通ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)23.89北向资金ETF买入及卖出成交额(亿元)59.97注:本文系新闻报道,不构成投资建议,股市有风险,投资需谨慎。 声明:证券时报力求信息真实、准确,文章提及内容仅供参考,不构成实质性投资建议,据此操作风险自担 下载\"证券时报\"官方APP,或关注官方微信公众号,即可随时了解股市动态,洞察政策信息,把握财富机会。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E5",
   "query": "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
   "title": "两市融资余额增加7.46亿元|界面新闻 · 快讯",
   "url": "https://www.jiemian.com/article/14813537.html",
   "source": "界面新闻",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T08:48:56+08:00",
   "snippet": "截至7月22日,上交所融资余额报13632.31亿元,较前一交易日减少3.67亿元;深交所融资余额报13270.37亿元,较前一交易日增加11.13亿元;两市合计26902.68亿元,较前一交易日增加7.46亿元。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E6",
   "query": "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
   "title": "科创板两融余额3532.64亿元 较上一交易日环比增加15.80亿元",
   "url": "https://stcn.com/article/detail/4033618.html",
   "source": "证券时报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T08:54:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "证券时报·数据宝统计显示,7月21日,科创板两融余额合计3532.64亿元,较上一交易日增加15.80亿元。其中,融资余额合计3517.03亿元,较上一交易日增加14.42亿元;融券余额合计15.61亿元,较上一交易日增加1.39亿元。(数据宝)近期科创板融资融券交易概况日期两融余额(亿元)较上一交易日增减(亿元)融资余额(亿元)融券余额(亿元)2026.07.213532.6415.803517.0315.612026.07.203516.83-146.353502.6114.222026.07.173663.18-172.013648.7914.392026.07.163835.19-77.413819.4515.742026.07.153912.60-39.883896.5116.092026.07.143952.48-26.553936.1616.322026.07.133979.04-77.573962.7916.252026.07.104056.61-3.794039.0917.522026.07.094060.404.364042.1418.262026.07.084056.03-19.124039.2016.832026.07.074075.15-29.334058.8016.352026.07.064104.49-40.214088.0716.412026.07.034144.69-51.514128.1716.522026.07.024196.20-3.734179.5316.672026.07.014199.9317.414181.6618.282026.06.304182.5355.414163.9818.542026.06.294127.12-14.544109.4917.632026.06.264141.65-15.804125.0616.59",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E7",
   "query": "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
   "title": "两市融资余额单日增7.46亿元 中国基金报",
   "url": "https://www.chnfund.com/article/a4174432-b34f-bd6a-a2ac-3a229e9f12fd",
   "source": "中国基金报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T08:48:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "两市融资余额单日增7.46亿元 来源:中国基金报 2026-07-23 08:48 中国基金报7月23日电,截至7月22日,两市融资余额合计26902.68亿元,较前一交易日上升7.46亿元。其中,上交所融资余额为13632.31亿元,减少3.67亿元;深交所融资余额达13270.37亿元,增加11.13亿元。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E8",
   "query": "2026年7月17日-23日 中证1000 融资余额 变化",
   "title": "两市融资余额增加7.46亿元_凤凰网",
   "url": "https://news.ifeng.com/c/8uzI6eHNk8S",
   "source": "凤凰网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T08:48:25+08:00",
   "snippet": "每经AI快讯,截至7月22日,上交所融资余额报13632.31亿元,较前一交易日减少3.67亿元;深交所融资余额报13270.37亿元,较前一交易日增加11.13亿元;两市合计26902.68亿元,较前一交易日增加7.46亿元。每日经济新闻",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E9",
   "query": "2026年7月23日 半导体行业 政策 盈利预期 新闻",
   "title": "中微半导:预计2026年半年度净利润同比增长90.82%-上海证券报·中国证券网",
   "url": "https://www.cnstock.com/commonDetail/749409",
   "source": "上海证券报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T20:06:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "中微半导:预计2026年半年度净利润同比增长90.82%凡本报注明“来源:上海证券报”、“来源:上海证券报·中国证券网”和“来源:上海证券报微信公众号”的所有原创作品,著作权均属于本报所有。未经本报书面授权,任何组织不得以任何方式加以使用,包括转载、摘编、复制或建立镜像,本报保留追责的权利。如需获得授权请联系本报版权运营中心:021-38967792,bq@cnstock.com。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E10",
   "query": "2026年7月 半导体ETF 融资余额 变化 杠杆",
   "title": "行业ETF方面丨半导体芯片ETF交投活跃度下降,10只石油ETF半日涨幅超3%_天天基金网",
   "url": "https://fund.eastmoney.com/a/202607233818714717.html",
   "source": "天天基金网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T13:17:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "今日上午,半导体芯片ETF交投活跃度大幅降低,仅科创半导体ETF华夏和科创芯片ETF嘉实半日成交金额超40亿元。跨境ETF方面,中韩半导体ETF华泰柏瑞半日成交金额达到109亿元,连续三个交易日成交超百亿。 ETF涨幅榜方面,随着原油、黄金价格回升,大宗商品类ETF今日走势较强,其中,10只石油相关ETF半日涨幅超3%,另外,有色金属ETF、工业有色ETF以及稀有金属ETF半日涨幅也基本在3%以上。 从投资逻辑来看,相较于原油可通过管输绕行、浮仓转运及战略储备释放构筑多重缓冲,成品油缺乏等效的应急调节通道,使得霍尔木兹海峡中断造成的供应缺口难以通过其他途径弥补。此外,俄罗斯正从传统成品油出口国转变为部分品种的净进口国,这一结构性变化或进一步放大全球成品油供应缺口。 点评:石油ETF南方今日上午上涨3.9%,其份额为0.5亿份,半日成交金额为1070.65万元,该ETF追踪的是国证石油天然气指数,追踪该指数的ETF还包括石油ETF华安、石油ETF工银、石油ETF鹏华等。其中,石油ETF鹏华规模相对较大,其份额为11.06亿份,半日成交金额为8834.16万元。 国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上市公司的证券价格变化情况。 国证石油天然气指数主要权重股(文章来源:每日经济新闻) (原标题:行业ETF方面丨半导体芯片ETF交投活跃度下降,10只石油ETF半日涨幅超3%) (责任编辑:10)",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E11",
   "query": "2026年7月 半导体ETF 融资余额 变化 杠杆",
   "title": "半导体ETF鹏华涨超2%,涨价自晶圆代工向先进封装蔓延 _ 东方财富网",
   "url": "https://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202607223816940127.html",
   "source": "东方财富网财经频道",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T00:00:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "消息面上,台积电2027年先进+成熟制程涨价至多10%(先进5-10%、成熟个位数,2027年1月起)。此前6月已放风7nm及以下全线涨5-10%、覆盖约75%晶圆营收,3nm 2H26最高涨15%;后道日月光年内已连涨三轮,7月初先进封装报价最高涨超20%、CoWoS/FoCoS在列。涨价自晶圆代工向先进封装蔓延。 东北证券认为,台积电2026年第二季度营收与利润均创历史新高,毛利率达67.7%,并二度上调全年资本开支至600-640亿美元。此次上调直接验证设备环节供需紧张与议价能力提升,其中70%-80%资金投向先进制程,同时规划未来数年在台湾新建13座晶圆厂、在美国追加千亿美元投资,全球半导体设备行业量价齐升趋势明确,景气度持续性获强力支撑。 截至2026年7月22日10:38,国证半导体芯片指数(980017)强势上涨0.72%,成分股盛科通信上涨12.65%,通富微电上涨10.00%,北方华创,长电科技等个股跟涨。半导体ETF鹏华(159813)上涨2.63%,最新价报1.72元。 半导体ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证半导体芯片指数,为反映沪深北交易所芯片产业相关上市公司的市场表现,丰富指数化投资工具,编制国证半导体芯片指数。 数据显示,截至2026年6月30日,国证半导体芯片指数(980017)前十大权重股分别为兆易创新、寒武纪、北方华创、澜起科技、海光信息、中微公司、中芯国际、佰维存储、源杰科技、长川科技,前十大权重股合计占比66.79%。 半导体ETF鹏华(159813),场外联接(A:012969;C:012970;I:022863)。",
   "tier": "A"
  },
  {
   "id": "E12",
   "query": "2026年7月 半导体ETF 融资余额 变化 杠杆",
   "title": "台积电计划2027年芯片代工价格最高上调10%,半导体ETF博时(159582)高开高走涨超5%_天天基金网",
   "url": "https://fund.eastmoney.com/a/202607223817122114.html",
   "source": "天天基金网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T09:42:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "截至2026年7月22日 09:35,中证半导体产业指数(931865)上涨0.75%,成分股北方华创上涨8.51%,雅克科技上涨6.83%,金海通上涨5.97%,有研新材上涨3.78%,江丰电子上涨2.63%。半导体ETF博时(159582)高开高走上涨5.26%,最新价报0.86元。拉长时间看,截至2026年7月21日,半导体ETF博时近3月累计上涨63.56%。 流动性方面,半导体ETF博时盘中换手5.08%,成交4037.29万元。拉长时间看,截至7月21日,半导体ETF博时近1周日均成交1.81亿元。 消息面上,台积电计划在2027年上调先进及成熟制程芯片的代工价格,涨幅最高可达10%,以应对材料、制造设备及海外新厂建设成本上涨。此前,台积电已大幅上调2026年资本开支至600-640亿美元,验证半导体设备环节供需紧张。东北证券认为,此次上调主因客户持续推动扩产及设备采购,通胀背景下70%-80%资金将投向先进制程,10%-20%用于先进封装等领域。全球晶圆厂扩产节奏加快,叠加AI驱动的结构性需求分化,不仅先进制程持续紧缺,成熟制程亦因PMIC与传感器需求放量出现供应紧张,国产代工企业有望在扩产与涨价双主线中受益。 资金流入方面,半导体ETF博时近5个交易日内,合计“吸金”1868.82万元。 半导体ETF博时紧密跟踪中证半导体产业指数,中证半导体产业指数从上市公司中,选取不超过40只业务涉及半导体材料、设备和应用等相关领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本,以反映半导体核心产业上市公司证券的整体表现。 数据显示,截至2026年6月30日,中证半导体产业指数(931865)前十大权重股分别为中微公司、北方华创、寒武纪、海光信息、拓荆科技、长川科技、华海清科、中科飞测、中芯国际、华峰测控,前十大权重股合计占比76.78%。(文章来源:界面新闻) (原标题:台积电计划202",
   "tier": "A"
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  {
   "id": "E13",
   "query": "2026年7月 红利ETF 电力ETF 银行ETF 资金流向 申赎",
   "title": "“迎峰度夏”核心催化,关注煤炭ETF(515220)、绿色电力ETF(159669)_凤凰网",
   "url": "https://news.ifeng.com/c/8uzMOf1lxAh",
   "source": "凤凰网",
   "published_at": "2026-07-23T09:40:44+08:00",
   "snippet": "煤炭/电力等红利方向7月22日表现较好:午后煤炭、电力板块接力活跃,多股涨停,低位高股息方向受资金青睐。基本面上,电力方向的核心催化在于“迎峰度夏”。南方出梅后高温范围持续扩大,全国用电负荷接连刷新历史纪录,民用电负荷攀升带动电厂日耗爬升,叠加三峡出库量自高位明显回落,水电替代效应减弱,电厂采购需求回暖,需求端迎来实质性改善,港口动力煤价持续上涨。而供给收缩超预期得到验证。6月全国原煤产量同比下降9.7%,创近十年单月最大降幅,安监高压对产能的实质性限制持续显现。7月17日山西六部门联合印发《矿山安全生产举报奖励实施细则》,举报奖励机制加速推动隐蔽面不合规产能出清。业绩方面,煤炭板块中报业绩预期较好。龙头业绩超预期,多家煤企发布业绩预增公告,Q2盈利环比大幅改善。且当前美伊冲突反复推升国际能源价格中枢,油价与煤价的能源替代逻辑重新被交易。当前市场风格变化较快。科技主线赚钱效应有所减弱,市场资金寻求避风港,煤炭、电力等红利方向兼具防御属性、稳定分红与迎峰度夏的景气支撑,或是震荡市中攻守兼备的选择。感兴趣的投资者可关注煤炭ETF(515220)、绿色电力ETF(159669),作为震荡市中的防御配置;此外,若更偏好一篮子高股息、央国企红利资产,也可留意红利国企ETF(510720)等相关方向。当然,红利板块同样存在波动,需注意价格回调风险。风险提示:投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。无论是股票ETF/LOF基金,都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种,其预期收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票,会面临因投资标的",
   "tier": "A"
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   "id": "E14",
   "query": "2026年7月 A股半导体 盈利预测 业绩 产业数据",
   "title": "AI算力需求驱动+产品涨价 半导体产业链上半年业绩大面积预增",
   "url": "https://stcn.com/article/detail/4033446.html",
   "source": "证券时报",
   "published_at": "2026-07-22T07:08:00+08:00",
   "snippet": "人民财讯7月22日电,最高预增743倍,半年度利润高达110亿元,以存储模组龙头江波龙为代表,A股半导体公司上半年业绩大面积预喜。 半导体公司上半年业绩为何增长?AI算力需求爆发带动需求增长,叠加产品涨价,布局AI赛道的半导体企业依托产品“量价齐升”,实现营收与利润同步高增。 展望下半年,有业内人士分析称,在北美四大云厂资本开支持续加码、头部大模型公司商业化持续落地的情况下,AI算力需求有望维持高增长态势,算力链条上的AI芯片、半导体设备与材料等细分环节,将持续保持较高景气度。 声明:证券时报力求信息真实、准确,文章提及内容仅供参考,不构成实质性投资建议,据此操作风险自担 下载\"证券时报\"官方APP,或关注官方微信公众号,即可随时了解股市动态,洞察政策信息,把握财富机会。",
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